Buffalo, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

602
FXUS65 KRIW 071110
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
510 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather remains likely across central and
  southern Wyoming through Friday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms with strong wind gusts are
  possible this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

- Below freezing temperatures possible in the western valleys
  Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

The main concern today remains fire weather. And concerns look to
amped up a few notches today as a cold front approaches the area.
This will turn flow southwest across much of the area, especially
central and southern Wyoming. This will likely bring the warmest day
of the week, with highs well into the 90s East of the Divide. A few
spots may briefly touch 100. It will also bring a gusty wind as the
pressure gradient tightens across the area. Like previous days, I
have used the NBM ensemble for wind gusts to determine potential
warning areas, with areas with a greater than 3 out of 5 chance for
3 hours of wind gusts past 25 mph. This is definitely the case in
Fremont and Natrona Counties, so the watches were upgraded. We also
added the Owl Creek Range and the southern Big Horn Range to the Red
Flag Warnings, Of all the days, this one to me looks to most
concerning with the combination of the low humidity (single digits
in some cases), gusty wind and hot temperatures. Elevated fire
weather is likely elsewhere. We thought about a few other locations
for critical fire weather but either the wind was too borderline
(lower elevations of Big Horn and Washakie Counties) or humidity was
a bit too high (locations further west). And, we have to worry about
a few showers and thunderstorms. This would be mainly across the
northern mountains and the northern Big Horn Basin. The only concern
would be wind gusts given the dry low levels. Dew point depressions
are very large though (up to 60 degrees) so any storm, shower or
even enhanced cumulus cloud could have a wind gust past 50 mph. A
few showers may linger past midnight, but coverage will sparse (at
most 1 out of 5) in most locations.

The cold front will drop southward across Wyoming on Thursday night
and Friday. This will bring some relief from the hot temperatures,
lowering highs from 10 to 20 degrees East of the Continental Divide.
However, the air mass will remain dry behind the cold front.
Northern Wyoming, as far south as the Owl Creek and Big Horn Range,
should see humidity rise enough for critical fire weather to end.
Further south, low humidity will persist, along with a gusty wind,
although this time from the northwest. This will bring another day
of critical fire weather to the other locations through Friday. And,
with slightly more moisture, there will be another chance of showers
and thunderstorms across northern Wyoming. However, with the
atmosphere remaining fairly dry the chance is again small, only 1
out of 5 again.

And we have one more concern for Friday night. With the dry airmass
over the area, low temperatures Friday night will be chilliest we
have seen in a while. We do have the potential for some frost in the
western valleys. A hard freeze (28 degrees) looks unlikely at this
point (chances are generally less than 1 out of 5). However, some
areas, like the Jackson and Star Valleys as well as the Green River
Basin have some areas with greater than a 1 in 2 chance of below
freezing temperatures. So, don`t be surprised if some areas wake up
to frost Saturday morning.

Fire concerns should really ease on Saturday as the pressure
gradient slackens and wind decreases. The only area of concern would
Sweetwater and southern Lincoln Counties, but even here the ind is
borderline. Temperatures will remain rather comfortable though
averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The weather looks relatively uneventful for Sunday and Monday with
mainly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Fire weather
could become a concern again toward the middle of next week though
as another trough and cold front approach the area from the north
and west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the TAF period.
Mid to high SCT-BKN clouds are expected to continue across the
region this morning. Clouds dissipate gradually by the late morning
before returning in the afternoon. Overall, the main concern today
will be strong gusty winds. These winds begin to increase around 15Z
with all terminals likely starting to see gusts of 25 to 35 knots by
the early afternoon. Winds persist past 00Z Friday gradually
decreasing by 03Z. A cold front is expected to begin to move into
the far northern portions of the state around this time. The front
may create a slim chance, around 10% for a virga shower nearby
KJAC or KCOD. The front will mainly impact central and northern
terminals by shifting winds to the north. This looks to occur
after 03Z at KCOD then eventually making its way south to other
terminals from 06Z to 12Z Friday. There are some indications for
lower clouds developing by KCOD after 06Z. Due to this a FEW050
cloud deck has been added to the KCOD TAF. Confidence is not
high at this time but a better idea of what to expect should
come with newer updates. The frontal passage may create a brief
period of mountain obscuration but should not linger too long.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

A combination of a gusty wind, relative humidity falling below
15 percent and dry fuels will bring critical fire weather to
much of central and southern Wyoming through Friday as a mainly
dry cold front moves through Wyoming. Elsewhere, elevated fire
weather is likely each afternoon. Fire weather concerns should
ease Saturday and Sunday as the wind decreases.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
WYZ285-287.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Friday for WYZ277>279-288-289-
414-416.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT Friday for WYZ280-
283-300.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...Dziewaltowski
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings